Monday, April 20, 2020

Zero dollar oil

I gasped in shock, $11 a barrel. Cushing is full, every available Suez supertanker full, floating storage going nowhere. Frackers are bankrupt and majors are bleeding red ink. Thousands of Mom and Pop stripper fields with "nodding donkey" pump jacks don't justify the electricity it takes to produce 10 bbls a day. 90% of global transport is idle, tens of thousands of passenger jets parked at maintenance fields, tens of millions of cars parked at home. Auto plants shut. Car repair shops, dealers, and rental companies dead broke and choking financially.

My finance buddy joked ten years ago: "A gallon of gold and a barrel of silver" as a portfolio hedge. A gallon of gold was about $100,000 back then, has doubled in price since, and might double again. Printing trillions of dollars of helicopter money ignited a fire under precious metals. They can't print gold. Global production of gold peaked in 2013. Domestic production peaked in 1998 and has been declining ever since. I remember buying gold at $400 an ounce, then $800 an ounce. $2000 an ounce looms on the horizon, maybe as soon as August. This is not good news. It means a wave of inflation at the grocery store. Weeks ago, I warned about distribution fragility, big rig drivers overworked, road service and tire shops shut.

The socialists on NPR think that a conspiracy of right wing DC nonprofits prompted people to protest at state capitals, honking car horns in Operation Gridlock. They ain't seen nothing yet. As the weather warms, there will be disorganized riots and looting, unstoppable by police forces laid low by viral infection. The uptick in suicide and mass shootings will be mild in comparison to the agony brewing in Chicago, Baltimore/DC, New York.

You wanted big government, you finally got it.

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